Would anyone care to know how the Iraq war ends?

OBSERVER JOURNAL INSIGHT:  Comments published - 11.6.03

Before we give away the ending, would those people who are confused and concerned please take a deep breath and calm down.  US policy makers are correct.  The nature of the terrorist attacks show weakness in their strategy, not long-term strength.  For those too excited to read to the ending, we’ll give a hint - it’s a bad bet to wager against the United States and human nature.

The US strategy has rested, from day one, on free Iraqis assuming greater and greater responsibility for their own security.  Already well under way, US troops are moving into the background.  Battalion, Brigade and Divisional headquarters have moved and will continue to move from urban areas onto the periphery of Iraqi cities.  At any given time in the future, it could mean 95% of US troops are in fortifications at the edge of Iraqi urban areas or in the continental USA resting.  During the coming months, some units will leave Iraq and some units will go to Iraq.  Other forces will transition from an occupational disposition back into an expeditionary posture which is well suited to waging a more balanced and effective campaign of counter–insurgency.

Since the founding of the Untied States of America, time has always been an important ally in all of our wars.  Day by day, the US has gotten stronger and richer and our adversaries, weaker and poorer.  (Yes - the axiom was true in Vietnam, just look at our main opponent – communism – today)  Transitioning away from occupational duties will be challenging.  But as more Iraqis take over urban security responsibilities, US troops will move onto the offensive.  Better counterinsurgency force deployment in fortified, interlocking, local police stations used to identify who lives where, a series of cordon blast walls and a National biometric ID card system will make it very challenging for foreigners or Iraqis to move around Iraq.  With more complete and up-close surveillance, it will be harder still to attack lightly protected trucks or foot patrols with roadside bombs or rocket-propelled grenades.

As US troops fought their way to Baghdad, their commanders had almost perfect intelligence on enemy forces.  Immediately after the end of major combat operations, the enemy became momentarily invisible, hiding in the population.  We are passing through a short period while the free Iraqis establish their own forces.  Free Iraqi forces will help establish better intelligence on these heinous killers.  Better intelligence is necessary and over the coming months, intelligence will improve.  Micro grants administered by US commanders for reconstruction and rebuilding will prove to be a powerful intelligence engine.  Iraqis who are tired of seeing their streets, shops, homes and neighborhoods blown up by terrorists will continue to come forward.  These are not “mastermind” terrorists.  What many, many people over look is that these bungling terrorists kill or badly wound 6 or 8 innocent Iraqi women and children in each bombing.  Clearly, the terrorists do not have a good long-term strategy.  With intelligence, lethal power will be applied effectively and, over time, judiciously.  Rather than close in occupation, US forces will support free Iraqi forces as they become more and more effective.  There will be major set backs but, most assuredly, time will be on our side.  Please remember, we began to hand over control to the Vietnamese in the sixth or seventh year of that counter-insurgency and it ended badly for the freedom loving democrats in Vietnam only because we quit supporting them with money.  Our troops had been out of that country for three years when the last patriots were killed and the shooting ended.

Out of sight and out of mind, oil in the South will prove to be a powerful weapon for a free Iraq and a free Iraqi people.  The new Iraqi state will not fail.  Iraq has a small population relative to potential economic capacity.  For example, just guarding the Southern oil infrastructure will prove to be a huge employment boom to long starved Shiites.  Because the population is small and has a four thousand year history of commerce, it is highly unlikely there will be insufficient resources to create a middle class.  Without US troops in the country as a lighting rod, it is even more unlikely there will be a large idle population willing to invest the majority of their time killing each other.  In the next thirty-six months, there will prove to be more than enough economic resources in Iraq.  With the help of Brown and Root, Iraqi engineers will prove highly adept at rehabilitating the Rumaila, Majnoon and Suba oil fields in the South.  Everyone in the world will be surprised at how quickly Iraqi oil begins to flow and what a huge positive impact the additional capacity will have in Iraq and on the world economy.  Iraq is a rich country that was ruled by a moron who spent 100% the people’s wealth on weapons.  In contrast, the USA spends 2-3%.

From day one, we have had the correct strategy.  Military operations have been superb, except during a short period in the eight weeks immediately after major combat operations.  Possible unwillingness, by General Franks who knew he would be retiring and would not have to deal with occupation operations, to pound the table hard for resources may have led to a lack of training and preparation for the occupation phase.  Whole Army and Marine divisions transitioned into occupation duties with very limited guidance from higher headquarters.  After action reports indicate General Franks was comfortable with phase IV (occupation) operations.  Maybe, he should have been adamantly demanding more phase IV planning.  Current commanders are addressing the training issues.  Candidly, more troops would not have helped because the US Armed Forces had not seriously trained for large-scale occupation missions in 60 years.  Better training and planning would have greatly increased effectiveness.   Over the coming months, US forces will work closely with the new Iraqi police, security services and army.  Combat deaths could fall to a few per year.  Unfortunately, during counter-insurgency missions, US forces and special operations troops will be killed.  In about thirty-six months, the new Iraqi forces will be sufficiently stronger than the terrorists and US troops will have rotated out of Iraq.  During this period, any limit to American patience will be extended and re-extended indefinitely every time there is a terrorist attack on an America city and, if asked, we will quickly return during crisis or to provide additional training.  After this period, it will take almost a decade for Iraqis to come to a complete political solution.  The remaining second-generation urban bomb makers will give up. 

Future years will see the Army, Marines, Navy and Air Force operate in expeditionary mode 95% of the time.  All aspects of national power will play a role.  99% of US forces will be based in the continental United States for increased flexibility and trained to rapidly strike, without depending on forward deployment or basing, at any government perceived to be threatening, even indirectly thru al Queda or other terrorists, a mass attack on US civilians.  The citizens of the United States are not going to be driven off the planet nor are we going to be enslaved by fear.  Having our forces based in the USA creates several long-term strategic advantages that far out weigh any logistical issues.  All of our Reserve and National Guard units will, at one time or another, be in this fight.  The killers and their backers must know that the world is a very small place.  In the greater war on terror, it is important for us to keep in mind that the principal of preemption (not relying exclusively on defense, i.e. pre 9/11, or counter attack after being weakened, i.e. post 9/11) was key to ensuring time always remains on our side, as a staunch strategic ally.  Bottom line: the USA is getting stronger and our enemies weaker.  Extremist movements are as old as recorded human history and every new extremist movement has eventually burned out.  Because of human nature, in the long run, the democrats in Iraq and the Middle East are going to win.